The Next 20 Years
Climate change is having a large and measurable impact on global weather patterns.
The impact of climate change on hurricanes, however, is less clear. Hurricane activity is naturally extremely variable. In any given region of the earth, we see active hurricane periods and slow periods, and the durations of these periods are not regular — they can range anywhere from a few years to a few decades. On top of this, there’s great variability from region to region. For example, hurricane activity has been well above normal in the Atlantic these past few years, but below normal worldwide.
Given all this natural variability, it’s challenging to glean meaningful conclusions about the relationship between climate change and hurricanes from single storms, single seasons, or even a decade of activity.
This all having been said, recent peer-reviewed papers from reputable scientists point to some trends.
- While overall hurricane frequency has not increased worldwide, the frequency of intense (Cat 4/5) hurricanes does seem to be increasing, possibly due to human-induced climate change.
- We’re seeing greater instances of extremely heavy rainfall in hurricanes, possibly due to increased atmospheric heat content.
The research is ongoing and our understanding of the relationship between climate change and hurricanes will continue to evolve.
One thing that’s less ambiguous: climate change is driving a rise in sea level, and this will add to the destructive impact of hurricane storm surges.
